New StockBuz

Ever want to have your own blog or website?  A place you could not only keep a trading diary, but talk LIVE with other traders, share knowledge,  join groups and Forums, post pictures, share videos…………..you know………..a playground just for traders, built by traders?   Welcome to StockBuz.   

Stockbuz is a new site [still in Beta] where you chat live with other traders and investors with a live chart right in front of you so you’re not missing any market action. 

• There’s less limitation on characters [250 vs. 140]
• Form a Group.   Groups have their own private chatroom which includes video capability
• Each Member has his/her own “webpage” with cutomizable backgrounds, layouts, colors, fonts, etc
• Moveable columns
• Insert your own apps/widgets from the millions found on the web
• Post to Twitter from your “My Page”
• Your friends can follow what you’ve been up to on your “My Page”  [blog posts, comments, Forum entries, etc]
• Begin your own blog for your friends to monitor. 
• Insert photos, charts, links, etc and post it to Twitter as well
• More being added each week

Contact me @ stockbuzsupport@aol.com if you would like to receive an invitation to join us.

Earnings Season

Yep, Monday is kickoff time for the 1Q 2010 earnings season with Alcoa [AA] leading the charge.  Over 60% of the S&P will report in the next three weeks and my belief is that any “meet or beat” on earnings and sales will send a stock higher as the market ignores the fact that these numbers are so low, even a snail could crawl beneath.  But this is defintely not an endorsement to buy any stock speicifically for an earnings play as no one ever can project exactly how the market will react even to the best of earnings.  So I guess my point  to this post is to warn you of overall market swings, keep your stops in place and expect the irrational exuberance to continue.  My projection is now Bullish on the S&P for another leg higher to $1200; possibly the 200wk SMA near $1235

A New Year – A New Venture

My bad for not blogging lately, as my shrink I’m certain feels it keeps me sane, however I began working on a new venture called StockBuz and well…………..it’s taking up all of my time.   I continue to like the financials, energy, materials, tech and anything in XLI here.  NE is also setting up for a breakout if it trades above 45.20 with increased volume.   My only risk aversion play at this juncture is long GILD.   I believe the time to buy risk aversion will come in a few months.  Until then, don’t forget me and check back her periodically for information on StockBuz.   A community of stock traders in LIVE chatrooms.

Whassup’ Doc?

A quick link from Ashraf Laidi outlining what he feels is going on with the USD and crude pricing.  Also touches on interest rates and the ADP report tomorrow.  Good stuff. (CLICK HERE) 8min.

Getting Long Gilead

I could so get long Gilead Sciences [GILD] here as its been forming a huge symmetrical triangle since 2008 and while not broken out yet, I like an entry here @ $43.30 with a stop below $42.50 [risking less than a buck].  This would be more of a safe haven play for 2010 and could run the entire year, but for a $20/share return while risking $1, I think I can handle the timeframe.

A Bio-Terrorism Play

A possible play for 2010 with mounting worries of terrorism since the Christmas bombing attempt could be Emergent Biosolutions [EBS].  This anthrax vaccine manufacturer has long been forming a long symmetrical triangle [a continuation pattern].  While the pattern itself has not broken, it has been under distribution since September and MACD is now showing positive divergence; a good sign.  Today it appeared to be breaking out of this down channel but I didn’t take the bait because volume was a little on the low side.  Being the first trading day of the year, a breakout is still possible but personally I’d like to see it come back and re-test that breakout area before jumping in.  Yes, it could bounce off of triangle resistance but I’d be prepared for that.

If todays breakout does not hold, I’d expect it to come back to $11.80-$12 and that would pose a good entry point at a swing with a stop below triangle support.  Just an idea going into 2010…………

2010 Bradley Model

Thought I’d start off my new year by revisiting the Bradley Model dates for 2010; first of which is March 1st and lasts prettymuch until mid August.  If you’re not familiar with Bradley, here’s a previous post for a better understanding but this date is interesting because many *anal*ysts and television commentators have mentioned 2Q as when they felt being the market would begin to truly deteriorate……….hmmmmmmm.  Wonder if they’re following the Bradley Model as well

One thing I must continually stress is that Bradley indicates an approximate date of a shift, but NOT it’s polarity so pay no attention to the direction shown on the graph.  It looks like we’ll go down but it could be that we go up instead.  Given the rise in SPX over the last year one would automatically assume that we’d turn and head lower, but never assume anything with the market because when you begin to do that…………..that’s when you lose all your moolah.

Farewell, Adios, Adieu ‘09

One trading day remains in the year that saw “The rally off the March bottom” and to be honest, I find myself so relieved I could run screaming naked out the door and through the snow; buuuuuut since I have no desire to offend my poor neighbors [or spend a night in jail] I shall refrain.  I’m merely sick and tired of hearing the phrase every two minutes.  Come to think of it, I’m tired of a crappy USD.  I’m tired of Maria Bartiromo saying “imporent” on nationwide TV as if it didn’t contain another “t” in the word [how much is she paid anyway?].      I’m tired of bankers receiving unbelieveable bonuses which I will be paying for via higher taxes.  I could go on and on because I’m female [and damn good at ranting], but then it dawned on me I should be thankful for the good things that took place in ‘09.

• Ken Lewis left BAC
• High frequency trading was addressed by the CFTC  [A huge at Tip to Zerohedge]
• Gold broke $1000
• Steve Jobs returned to AAPL
• Gold broke $1200
• The Kindle
• Windows 7 release.   Not because I love the it but touchscreen technology [imho] will revitalize the semis going forward.
• My middle daughter went off to college

I will resume posting after the New Year but I hope you all had a profitable year, learned a little more about the market than you knew before and I wish you health, happiness and prosperity in 2010.  

Heavy Put/Call Ratios

You can find a trade in the darndest places, like a high Put/Call ratio in PETM.  With a put/call of 20.8 on Thursday, I had to see why.  No earnings.  No bad news; its more technical than that.   Not only does the MACD Histogram have negative divergence [smaller with each attempt as price went higher] but its formed a fat rising wedge and if you look closely at the Bollinger Bands, they became smaller with each expansion.  All signs of impending failure.  Given the thin holiday trading, anything is possible but I like the risk here to short at the open or premarket risking only .50 cents with a target of $24 for over 10% gain

Silver Seasonality

By request, silvers seasonality.  (High: May or Sep//Low: Jun or Dec) The effects of the normal contango price structure are especially pronounced. With each successive contract priced at a premium to reflect carrying charges, rollover produces a deceptive “rally.”  IMHO seasonality hasn’t been an effective driver or deterrent in ‘09 but it still should be taken into account when trading the metal as well as contract rollover dates as mentioned above.