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SPX opened today and was immediately rebuffed @ $956 heading lower; albeit slowly. Cool, one point for me. Ben Bernanke (Ben the Impaler as we like to call him in Stockpickr.com Forums) was speaking regarding our current economic conditions in the US and putting strain on markets as investors worried the Fed would ease their quantitative easing efforts. If they did, would this put in jeopardy the recovery we’ve made thus far? Ben did his best to sidestep the issue and the USD jumped, causing the market to sink but shortly thereafter, it did an about face when he squirmed out without giving a direct response. The Bulls cheered, happy days were here again, and we rose higher.
Was I worried? Oh hell yeah. *lol* I was short and had really envisioned a little more of a retracement; at least 23.6% around $936 if not more. You have to understand that shorts coming into the market is an important part of the fuel that we use to go higher. This is, after all, Summer. There are less buyers out there than normal so in my mind, shorts become even more essential to a markets rise, at least in my opinion.
So at this point I am still net short and admittedly nervous. AAPL reported tonight and beat estimates as they always do. They are a tightly run ship but I believe its significant they reinforced that point to investors with Steve Jobs on the mend. It rose to $158.85 after hours then down to around $157.97 b4 ending at $158.40. Many have noted the diagonal trend line in AAPL on the monthly. It ends right around $157 so I’ll be curious to see if it is stopped there tomorrow or able to close above it; especially being so overbought. Note I did short the stock @ $158 after the close but don’t follow me unless we have a decisive break lower. Obviously very high risk here.
SPX failed to close above its high (suspect), large traders did not increase new long positions today (neutral), GLD dropped 2tons of boullion today (Bearish), SPX still has that *line in the sand* as posted yesterday and we have that whole eclipse thing going on tomorrow. Another idea is that this afternoons rise **could** have been an effort to shake out weak shorts which is what I’m hoping for. We’ll see how it all shakes out tomorrow but for now I’m saying my prayers and counting the stars. Shit. I may have to call a friend for a loan…..
Just a quick note. I’ve mentioned a little here that Gann followers and more believe that celestial movement and positioning can have impact on the markets. While I don’t know if that’s true, we’ll be experiencing a Solar Eclipse this Wednesday, July 22, 2009 so star gazers, get ready your foil hats or whatever you do. For more info. on Gann theory I would suggest Wikipedia or Investopedia B)
Last month I posted a blurb about the Bradley Model; a graph of dates calculated using astrology (no I’m not nuts) to flag certain stock market turning points. June 26th was one such date, which are meant to be approximate, and three business days later SPX failed to make a new high. MACD crossed the Signal line on the Daily and everyone began worrying if the rally was over.
Now another Bradley date is upon us. Again, Bradley doesn’t indicate direction or strength of a shift, just that a change will take place; so now we’re looking at July 14/15th. Wonder which way it’ll go. (For the Bradley graph see Indicators or Astrology in the Category drop down)
In my very meager opinion it’s not necessary to be thoroughly versed in intricacies of financial astrology but since I began researching “the stars to the stock market” while back, I regret not having done it years ago. Fund Managers, Financial Advisors, Analysts and traders of all shapes and sizes follow the stuff. You’ll hear someone say “there’s a full Moon next week” or “Saturn’s at its apex” and you’ll sit quietly, having no idea at all what they’re saying. It might as well be code.
Some follow the Chinese calendar year (ox, dog, rooster, etc.), others the planetary cycles (Saturn, Mars, etc.) and then there’s Decennial cycles based on the last # of the calendar years (so we’re in #9 for 2009). I’m certain there are other forms and variations lurking as well.
It is thought the 1st financial astrologer was Thales of Miletus who, along with Aristotle, is thought to be the Father of Science and Philosophy. Thales, through his astrological studies, forecast a bountiful olive season so he hired all the olive presses he lent out and when the record olive harvest came in, he made a huge profit. I can see why Wall Street would be interested in getting even the slightest edge on a future market.
But think about it. The sun? Come on. That sounds like babble doesn’t it? Well, what about sunny days? Does the market tend to close higher on sunny days vs. cloudy days? Can the Sun really influence peoples emotions and trading? The answer it would seem is yes. Professor David Hirshleifer from the University of California at Irvine did an extensive analysis of 26 stocks over a 17 year period (1982-1997) and his results: the annualized rise on sunny days is 25% and just 9% if the weather cloudy. But wait, there’s more.
The Moon is the sun of the night and rules the sign Cancer which is, according to different empirical studies, associated with success and growth. Sun and Moon alone accounted for 3/4 of all profits of all 17 years. That’s some pretty amazing stuff. So while I haven’t been into astrology since the fourth grade, I’m into it now brother, you bet. I’ll post more on the subject another day but in the meantime, next time you watch the evening weather report, $5 bucks says you’ll notice if its a full moon or not 
