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Ever want to have your own blog or website? A place you could not only keep a trading diary, but talk LIVE with other traders, share knowledge, join groups and Forums, post pictures, share videos…………..you know………..a playground just for traders, built by traders? Welcome to StockBuz.
Stockbuz is a new site [still in Beta] where you chat live with other traders and investors with a live chart right in front of you so you’re not missing any market action.
- There’s less limitation on characters [250 vs. 140]
- New slideshow charts of StockBuz members recommended trades
- Tweet Tracker
- Form a Group. Groups have their own private chatroom which includes video capability
- Each Member has his/her own “webpage” with cutomizable backgrounds, layouts, colors, fonts, etc
- Moveable columns
- Insert your own apps/widgets from the millions found on the web
- Post to Twitter from your “My Page”
- Your friends can follow what you’ve been up to on your “My Page” [blog posts, comments, Forum entries, etc]
- Begin your own blog for your friends to monitor.
- Insert photos, charts, links, etc and post it to Twitter as well
- More being added each week
Contact me @ stockbuzsupport@aol.com if you would like to receive an invitation to join us. Update: StockBuz is now open the public. No invitation or subscription. Come join us http://stockbuz.net
Thought I’d start off my new year by revisiting the Bradley Model dates for 2010; first of which is March 1st and lasts prettymuch until mid August. If you’re not familiar with Bradley, here’s a previous post for a better understanding but this date is interesting because many *anal*ysts and television commentators have mentioned 2Q as when they felt being the market would begin to truly deteriorate……….hmmmmmmm. Wonder if they’re following the Bradley Model as well 
One thing I must continually stress is that Bradley indicates an approximate date of a shift, but NOT it’s polarity so pay no attention to the direction shown on the graph. It looks like we’ll go down but it could be that we go up instead. Given the rise in SPX over the last year one would automatically assume that we’d turn and head lower, but never assume anything with the market because when you begin to do that…………..that’s when you lose all your moolah.
So you’re learning the market, papertrading [or live] and still feel that you’re struggling to find valid chart patterns that actually work. Should you buy a subscription for a website telling you when to buy/sell a stock? Which one? Who do you trust? How did these guys get so good at finding their trades??? Don’t give them all such credit. Some are cheating. Enter Autochartist.com. Autochartist.com is a little search engine which identifies up to 
16 different chart patterns, both emerging and complete, which you personalize based on strength, length, etc and let run. Throughout the trading session, a little pop-up box notifies you of patterns located in Forex, Equities, Indicies or in specific areas which you create. There’s even a Fibonacci pattern identifier which gives you a better handle on entry/exit areas. In full disclosure, I occassionally run a scan or use my brokers various pattern tools but found their accuracy very lacking. 90% of the time I end up locating my own patterns which takes up a lot of my time…so I was intrigued. I went ahead and tried their 14 day free trial and found it to be a wonderful tool and it certainly saved me from setting up/running my own scans, drawing possible trendlines and viewing charts over and over again. *Move over Mr. Broker!* I found this little engine much more accurate and user friendly and the fact that it was continuously running/scanning left me free to do other research which was a huge bonus. I give them four stars.
If you’ve ever looked at an oil painting and stood back to gain better perspective, sometimes taking a look at the market through a different chart layout allows you to gain perspective better than your typical candlestick or OHLC setting. Such is the case when viewing SPX using a mountain [also known as area] chart.
Single data chart types (bar, line, and mountain) use the closing price (or last price for intra-day) for its singular charting data point thereby removing many of severe highs and lows which can distract the eye. In the case of SPX, each area marked where the mountain *flattened* or experienced double and triple tops, a correction ensued. Now one should also note our recent market action reflects a much larger/longer flattening which I believe infers a larger correction ahead and here’s why:
- “Smart money” sells at the top and buys at the bottom and with that being said, I believe its larger/longer size means market participants are unloading more of their long positions at this *top*
- I believe we’re seeing some huge short covering in USD after its long selloff and if you remember the unwinding of the carry trade last year in JPY, it wasn’t something accomplished in one week. This pop in USD will put additional pressure on the market.
- Year end is only three weeks away; part of which Money Managers will be gone on vacation.
Last week I pointed out how SPY was forming a Bearish Megaphone and recommended extending out those trend lines on your chart as a type of “ceiling”. Friday that same extended trend line held and now the Bollinger Band continues to tighten. Volatility cometh. God only knows I could be dead wrong and we could skyrocket up to $1500 but based on the above, I firmly believe we should be following the Money Managers; selling into any pop, NOT initiating new longs and expecting a drop. It’s only a matter of time.
When viewing COT charts, we can tend to think of Commericals as “always short” but such is not the case when it comes to Copper. Commercials such as miners will hold huge positions in their own shiny stuff and ride the wave higher such has been the case with Copper in 2009. In checking the COT lately, however, you’ll notice a mass exodus of Commercial long positions which has peaked my curiosity. Do they smell a shift in the commodity winds? Just food for thought folks.
The big pitfall in social networking be it twitter, facebook or another site, is the incessant spam and spambots which are not only annoying, but time consuming to detect and delete. While I cannot help with other sites, with Twitter the solution is Twerpspam.com. Bookmark it.
List and sort your followers and friends, up to 100 at a time. Follow, unfollow or block contacts right on the spot — either one by one, or many at once. And get a more complete picture about any Twitter user by using their handy Drilldown feature. [Hat tip to @TraderJon]
I’m constantly posting articles, charts and videos here from traders and bloggers worldwide which I think could help the typical *Joe* learn more about the market, news and how it affects us or just how to make better trades. This is one such post. Here I give you a video from Dan Fitzpatrick @ stockmarketmentor.com where he explains his method for stop placement and how to play Bollinger Band expansions. He even goes a little into some *tells* of when a stock is weakening and near to rolling over. Now in all fairness there are an innumerable number of methods such as these but I’ve always found Dan to be a very straight-up guy and I’ve actually used these same methods hundreds, if not thousands of times so I know they work. Since I don’t do videos – I’m bringing you his. BTW, you can sign up for these free videos on his website at the end of the clip. Good luck :)
Over the last few months I’ve attempted to have you familiarize yourself with the Bradley siderograph but has it actually performed? And how does one incorporate these dates into a trading strategy? For what it’s worth, we just hit another Bradley date on 10/21 and one more is due 11/09.
Many traders/investors believe Psychology moves all markets be it equity, Forex, etc. and tens of thousands each day study the theory that people [markets] move in “herds” or cycles. Furthermore, they believe the psychology of the herd is affected by lunar and planetary shifts. Ever hear a trader mention “tomorrow’s a full moon”? Yes, some traders do heed the movement of the heavens. Predicting this behavior, the psychological shifts and swings based on lunar and planetary cycles, and not short term shifts based on news, is what Bradley is all about. 
Understanding this helps you to understand the Bradley siderograph. It tells us, based on planetary and lunar movements, when we could expect to see shifts in the market; shifts not based on news but on the psychology of the herd. To the right you will see how Bradley performed in thus far in 2009. No, it didn’t predict the mass selling frenzy that took place in March but one must remember that that was news-related panic selling taking place; not a typical market shift. Once the FOMC announced quantitative easing in March, the market immediately went back on track and began to heal.
How I personally use the model is to set an alarm for myself on my trading platform [you could use Outlook or another such tool] for two weeks before a Bradley date. I then evaluate *if* there were a shift coming, should take partial profits, exit a weak position and/or where would I prefer to hedge myself. Should I move up my stops? If the market does swing, what stocks would I like to add to and at what price level?
The important thing to bear in mind is that the siderograph is NOT an indication of the strength of a move OR of direction. Just because the graph line is moving in one direction, the market could move in the opposite direction. Merely focus on the dates, set an alarm and wait for a *friendly flare* to light the way.
(edited to add) For rurther information on the effects of lunar cycles and the stock market, download these studies done by the University of Michigan and University of California Irvine or obviously search the web for further information.
Just released, the Bradley model for 2010. Note the approximate date of a huge move indicated and put it on your calendar. While I’m not setting any buy/sell triggers by that date, I will respect the timeframe and have a trading strategy prepared *in case* there’s a shift in the trading winds. New to the Bradley Model? Click here for further information on its origin and uses.
There are a number of market studies out there, one of them being T2122 better known as the % of stocks making new 4-week highs/lows. In this demonstration, I have marked the left chart where weakness or divergences can be seen. In the 2nd chart the shaded areas in SPX correspond to the weakness in T2122 and you can clearly see that in each instance it was almost a yellow caution flag for a market pullback. While this in no way can predict sudden market moves based on news or currency shifts, it is a nice study to refer to at times of indecision. 
