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If you took my advice and got out of solar or went short, you’ll be very glad this evening as FSLR reported 3Q earnings and is being sold down the river on light guidance. An echo of the comments made by SPWRA last week; pressure on margins due to low demand, high inventory and pressure for lower prices. Things that investors don’t want to hear **if** we’re out of a recession. Currently down to $133 You can search FSLR and solar stocks in my blog to see my position and why.
FSLR broke out of its descending triangle and is now coming back to test that breakout resistance area. I have placed an order to short the solar God @ $154.60 and will short again ever $2 higher with my stop above overhead resistance as marked on the chart. If you note the Accumulation/Distribution, ti continues to drop. Funds just are not getting into the solars at this point in time and neither will I. Target marked on the chart. I will just take off portions as it drops and lower my stop.
‘”Who’da thought a good little girl like you cold destroy my beautiful wickedness!” Broad weakness in solar this morning. See my comments below for my take on the sector. Stopped out on YGE [thank goodness for trailing stops to protect profits]. Even CSIQ reflects it’s weakening each day.
Just when I thought it was o.k. to go out into the solar sector, I’m seeing weakness in many of the tickers out there. I put out an alert on YGE 10/09 on a Bullish flag; however TAN is in a downward channel, FSLR in a Bearish expanding megaphone [although some will argue it could still possibly turn into a H&S bottom], SOLR in a triangle [bias unknown] but ALL seem to be losing the Accumulation/Distribution battle here. It would seem the solar fad is fading, at least for now. One exception seems to be CSIQ but it’s forming a triangle so it may correct as well. [Maybe it outperformed b/c its a China mfgr].
LDK broke down on October 1st. Now it has scratched its way back up to test breakdown resistance. Note the small candles – not much demand. I like this area of retest and will be shorting it there for a low capital risk entry at the open tomorrow. Target $6.50ish with a stop above $8.67 [Full disclosure: existing long position in YGE]
Keep YGE on your radar. Forming a triangle with upside bias. A breakout on higher
volume would give us target near $20-21. Full disclosure I am already long this China semiconductor.
Flipping through my watchlist I came across FSLR which looks like its flagging or forming a falling wedge. Unconfirmed at this point until it breaks w/increased volume but then I stood back and looked at the broader picture. Bollinger Bands are tightening. Cool. Oh, what’s that? Is it possibly forming the right shoulder of a H&S bottom? OK, so it’s a little deformed but traders love patterns and a H&S can attract other traders like bees to honey. The target off the wedge would be at your discretion but target off the H&S would be around $210 so definitely keep it on your radar.
When FSLR was selling off and everyone scorned it, my mouth was watering. I couldn’t wait for that sucker to get down to $110 or even $100 and I was going to load up. Damn! I got *thaaaat* close. It bottomed at $112 and buyers flooded in. I don’t know if I was sick or where the Hell I was but somehow I scaled in at $135 and $125 and not lower (?) but that was ok. I was in the best solar play in town. Life was good. Then some dufus *anal*yst downgraded them; said they were only worth $99. Schmuck. Shows what he knows. No other rating agency has downgraded them so he’s an idiot. FSLR has been on fire as crude struggled the last two weeks.
This weekend I have been forcing myself to re-evaluate each and every stock in my portofolio and I’m surprised by what I came up with on FSLR. I won’t even explain here; just click on the chart to find out more but I just know I’m going to burn in Hell, or at least hold open the door 
So you thought I was insane when I bought FSLR. You thought it was toast. Even an *anal*yst downgraded them with a target of $99. Well, stop kicking yourself. It happens. I pay little attention to analysts and obviously big $$ ignores them as well as they came swooping in and scooped up FSLR at prices not seen since March. How stupid does that analyst look now since no other analysts joined him in his cat-calling and downgrade? *LOL* Well I found another solar play for us. It’s a China-based company and I like this one – a lot.
STP has been consolidating since May and accumulation began to rise again this month. Its 200d is solidly beneath it now and all is right with the world. Click on the chart for more details and good luck.
