ES_F for Thursday 10/22

ES 10.22.09The big selloff just prior to market close today already retraced more than 23.6%  of our last leg up so here [on a hourly chart] are the retracement levels I’m looking at in terms of support/resistance for tomorrows session.  While normal pivots will apply, I give more weight to retracements in a pullback as *magnets* on settlement.   Trading below $1055 will pose as a significant move of over 50%  implying a full retracement will be on the horizon.  Much will depend on not only the unemployment claim #s tomorrow, but if we experience further Galleon fund selling and there’s no way to predict that; even with a Quija board.  I will not be adding to longs at this point but will most likely day trade short breakdowns in the financial and REIT area and monitor the rest of the market.  The best advice I could give anyone here is not to force the issue.  Don’t push youself into trading without a good setup and defined entry/exit point.  To push a trade in this environment will result in a lower % of winners so take it easy.  I will say, however, if QM climbs to $84 I will begin shorting the black gold based on ’08 resistance and the fact that a 20% run up in three weeks is excessive for crude when there’s no demand.  I wonder how much of *it’s* pop has been due to true buying or Galleon covering short positions??????

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