Behaviors At The Top

Paying attention to the mood and behavior of the overall market is as important as the ability to recognize a simple stock pattern, if not more so.  Let’s forget the politics, unemployment and GDP for the time being.  Rather let’s look at investor sentiment because this alone is a huge contrary indicator of a market.  Point in fact is this weeks AAII Investors Sentiment Survey which revealed those responding were 42.1% Bullish [relatively unchanged],  28.4% Bearish [down 6.9%] and 29.5% Neutral [up 7.5%].  According to TradersNarrative “the last time we saw a similar lack of bearishness was in April 2008 and September 2007.  Both were tops before another leg down.”  While I do not subscribe to AAII and therefore do not have access to these statistics, I do respect the work done on the tradersnarrative site and have to take it to heart.  It is, afterall, when the most are Bullish, that markets correct.  When they’re at their most Bearish, they pivot and turn higher [plowing over the Bears as fuel] so I remain cautious and Bearish at this point.  Selling/fading market highs with close overhead stops and waiting.  Somethings going to snap and it appears we’re going to make another run to the highs next week.  If the Bulls can’t find enough buyers at years’ end with these extended valuations, I highly doubt SPX will rise above $1122.  My stop tolerance @ $1130.  Our Santa Claus rally may have been the rally we’ve had off the March lows; and that’s a helluva rally initself.

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